12/20-21 Storm Threat?
Since some here are interested in a snow event during this period, I thought we start a more formal thread discussing it. I start with some of my thoughts.Based 0z/13 EC ensemble mean, the setup looks...
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Thanks Gun. Like the west coast ridge starting to take shape...just need it to be more east to relax the se ridge influence....That being said, even if storm were to go SE of us, with no high north of...
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LIsnowBubble wrote:Thanks Gun. Like the west coast ridge starting to take shape...just need it to be more east to relax the se ridge influence....That being said, even if storm were to go SE of us,...
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I actually think this storm wont move much more North than what it is currently modeled. If it does, it will be just North enough to spread light rain into the area along the coast, and some flurries...
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Thanks for the clear, concise thoughts and explanation, Miguel. Would the PV have to be further S in order to pump cold air into our region? Is it simply too far away on the chart you posted?
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RespectforWeather wrote:Thanks for the clear, concise thoughts and explanation, Miguel. Would the PV have to be further S in order to pump cold air into our region? Is it simply too far away on the...
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Next week's storm is now suppressed on the GFS. It went from an inland storm to a suppresed storm in 1 run lol.
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^ too funny. Looks like we will be playing this game all winter. lol
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metfan4life wrote:Next week's storm is now suppressed on the GFS. It went from an inland storm to a suppresed storm in 1 run lol.This is why I don't base my thoughts too much on the operational runs,...
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0z GFS shows the same thing like the 18z GFS did but more north.
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The GFS looks like a mess with shortwave energy at 500mb. The GFS ensemble members look all over the place as well. So I would avoid following their solutions for now. Meanwhile, the Euro and it's...
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With this type of a setup the models past 3-5 days out are going to be all over the place run by run. Steve D touches on this on his public video post today linked below...
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cwis24 wrote:With this type of a setup the models past 3-5 days out are going to be all over the place run by run. Steve D touches on this on his public video post today linked below...
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Miguel if any storm has a shot at verifying in bringing in wintry weather to the Northeast, it is the one right around Christmas. Not going to comment much on that, but the pattern will be more...
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Steve isnt really making anything seem more dramatic then what it will be. He is just simplying pointing out the fact to watch next weeks system in the southwest and watching the timing of it....
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I believe the pattern will change and the question is when and hopefully it is real after Christmas. We got January and February to be two active months. Until don't expect much more than flurries or...
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0z GFS made ZERO sense. Will try and explain tomorrow. Night!
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